2026 Retail Predictions

I just read the Forbes/Forrester 2026 US retail predictions: profitability pressure, specialty retailer bankruptcies, chatbots reshaping shopping, and the end of generous e-commerce returns.

Here’s my take from Shanghai—not to “copy China,” but to use China as a benchmark and fast-forward lab for what happens when competition forces discipline.

1) Profitability isn’t a slogan — it’s a filter.

If your unit economics are broken, AI won’t rescue you—it will expose them faster. China shows tech doesn’t fix broken economics; it compresses the timeline. Disciplined retailers get leverage. Undisciplined ones collapse faster. The real work is format, cost structure, and decision velocity.

2) By 2026, GenAI is infrastructure — advantage moves up the stack.

Models commoditize. Advantage shifts to:

• Feedback loops (first-party data + learning)

• Workflow integration (latency + adoption)

• Decision rights (who can act in hours vs. weeks)

Mature AI markets like China stop talking about “AI-powered.” AI is already embedded in forecasting, pricing, content, and operations. They talk about cycle time, conversion, shrink, and cash.

3) Returns aren’t a policy — they’re a trust architecture.

Tighten returns without rebuilding trust upstream and you’re not protecting margin—customers don’t “comply,” they defect. In China, trust is engineered before purchase: better decision quality (content, live demos, human mediation) and gradual, behavior-based friction that makes abuse uneconomical for customers rather than “illegal.”

My bet for 2026: the retail winners won’t look “futuristic.” They’ll look boringly disciplined (think Walmart in the US, JD in China).

China’s playbook shows the path: engineer trust upstream, embed AI into end-to-end workflows, and run the business on faster decision cycles.

#RetailStrategy #GenAI #ChinaRetail #OperatingModel #CustomerTrust