𝐀𝐈 𝐉𝐨𝐛 𝐂𝐮𝐭𝐬: 𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐁𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐁𝐮𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫 𝐈𝐬 𝐀𝐥𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐲 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐲𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐥

AI may eliminate tasks. It doesn't have to eliminate people.

Your best protection against AI layoffs may be something you already have: employee turnover.

But that protection shrinks in a recession.

Economists Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu found that roughly 90% of US routine-job losses since the mid-1980s occurred around recessions. Many of those jobs never returned.
Goldman Sachs warns that AI-related job losses could follow a similar pattern.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: 𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐚 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐝.

In September, 3.1% of US retail workers quit their jobs, the kind of monthly turnover seen in 2007. That's equivalent to more than one-third of employment over a year in quit events.
In 2009, the monthly rate fell to around 2% as workers held on to their jobs.

Here's what that means for AI transformation.

Where AI reduces work in high-turnover roles, avoid replacing departing employees when the remaining team can absorb the workload.

Where it changes roles people rarely leave, retrain and redeploy those employees into positions opening elsewhere.

Walmart offers an example. In 2025, its CEO said AI would change virtually every job, yet the company planned to maintain its global headcount at around 2.1 million for three years.

The mix changes. The headcount holds.

And the human stakes are considerable.

Economists Steven Davis and Till von Wachter found that long-tenured US men displaced in mass layoffs during high unemployment suffered twice the long-term earnings losses of those displaced when unemployment was low.

Even China, which targets over 70% penetration of new-generation smart devices and AI agents by 2027, urged employers in October to give early warnings, redeploy staff and explore an unemployment buffer period.

These are different approaches pointing toward the same principle: absorb the change before you cut.

There is another clock ticking: your people's patience. Employees who cannot see their future in the organization may resist, or even sabotage, the transformation.

𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐞: 𝐧𝐨 𝐀𝐈 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐚 𝐨𝐧𝐞-𝐩𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞-𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞.

• Roles affected: tasks, not names
• Hours saved: redeployment, natural attrition or potential cuts
• Employee communication: before decisions become irreversible
• Retraining costs: included in the project budget
• Downturn scenario: what changes if sales fall 10%?

One rule: savings don't count until the plan says what happens to the people affected.

Write it now, while you have room to adapt your workforce smoothly, fairly and at a lower human cost.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞. 𝐘𝐨𝐮 𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐤 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐦𝐚𝐠𝐞.

#AI #Retail #FutureOfWork #WorkforcePlanning #Leadership

Contact

bruno.gentil@sherpaconsultingasia.com

© 2026. All rights reserved.