𝐅𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠? 𝐎𝐫 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝?

One of the hardest things about imagining the future is realizing how trapped we are by the present.

We don't just look ahead. We drag today's assumptions with us. Psychologists call it 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲 𝐛𝐢𝐚𝐬, and it works like gravity, pulling our imagination back toward what feels familiar.

Take the debate about AI and jobs.
One side points to strong job numbers and says the labor market is just fine. The other points to struggling graduates, announced AI-linked layoffs as proof the disruption is already here.

Both are describing something real. But neither tells us much about the future.

When a transformative technology arrives, we ask narrow questions: which jobs shrink, which grow, which industries adapt. Useful, but incomplete.

Because 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐰𝐬 𝐮𝐩 𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐬𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐮𝐩𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲.

When the internet first appeared, who truly pictured social media, the creator economy, smartphones as extensions of ourselves, digital identities, remote work at scale, or entirely new forms of status and labor?

Almost no one. Not for lack of intelligence. Our imagination was caged by the assumptions of that time.

That's why I like a question Jane McGonigal raises in her book Imaginable:

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐟 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝟏𝟎 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬?

It loosens the grip of today's "obvious" truths. Once those assumptions move, futures that look unrealistic, even ridiculous, become easier to examine and to prepare for.

𝐀𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐬 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐬.

In 1999, David Bowie told a skeptical BBC interviewer the internet was not "just a tool" but "an alien life form", and that its impact would be "unimaginable". He saw past the tool, into the cultural shift.

That word, unimaginable, is the whole point.

The real work isn't predicting perfectly. It's 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 far enough that we're less ambushed when the impossible becomes normal.

What assumption about today's world do you think is most likely to be wrong 10 years from now?

#FutureThinking #AIandWork #Imagination #RecencyBias #Foresight #ArtistMindset

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